We are not alone..

[chrisch]

Originally Posted by Bantam

...Time is a linear constant that never changes and is universal. ....

No, I'm afraid that is not correct. Read up on yer Hawkins me old mucker...

Not really my field, but statistics are. If you take the age of the planet and look at the (infinitesimal) existence of human society in an "advanced" form you can see that in our current version of time the likelihood of two civilisations having evolved and developed at the same time is hundreds of thousands of millions to one. You now need to multiply that by the statistical probability these two are in the same galaxy (unless you move up the improbability scale to include inter-galactic travel)

Now look where we are in our galaxy. At the end of one of the arms. A planet in the middle stands a much better chance of having neighbours.

From a probability standpoint you're much more likely to discover dinosaurs (or the alien equivalent) if you discover complex life elsewhere. Let's see what turns up on Mars. That will be a real test of how widespread biological life is, or has been.

Statistically we are much more likely to discover a civilisation that died out millions of years ago than a living one. Equally if anyone has been here it was most likely when the world was covered in green snot.

The odds are just too long.

Chris

[Richard Mason]

Originally Posted by chrisch

No, I'm afraid that is not correct. Read up on yer Hawkins me old mucker...

Not really my field, but statistics are. If you take the age of the planet and look at the (infinitesimal) existence of human society in an "advanced" form you can see that in our current version of time the likelihood of two civilisations having evolved and developed at the same time is hundreds of thousands of millions to one. You now need to multiply that by the statistical probability these two are in the same galaxy (unless you move up the improbability scale to include inter-galactic travel)

Now look where we are in our galaxy. At the end of one of the arms. A planet in the middle stands a much better chance of having neighbours.

From a probability standpoint you're much more likely to discover dinosaurs (or the alien equivalent) if you discover complex life elsewhere. Let's see what turns up on Mars. That will be a real test of how widespread biological life is, or has been.

Statistically we are much more likely to discover a civilisation that died out millions of years ago than a living one. Equally if anyone has been here it was most likely when the world was covered in green snot.

The odds are just too long.

Chris

Aaaah. You beat me to it.

I read an interesting book by Fred Hoyle a while back, he used exactly the same argument and actually came up with some statistical stuff.

In the same book, he also suggested that the laws of physics had to have been set in motion by a "higher intelligence" - it was very interesting & thought provoking stuff.

[A. Berk]

Originally Posted by me!

the odds that we are not alone are are about 1,000,000 to one but how many grains of sand make up everest???

Er, ooh, umm, thats a hard one and I don't know owt about double glazing

Borek

[Buoyant Babe]

Originally Posted by weazelz

I, for one, welcome our new insect overlords

Enough about the Mods, what about the aliens?

[jim robb]

Originally Posted by Lazlo

If there are aliens, we'd better hope they don't find us.

Especially now our preferred method of saying hello is beaming Doritos adverts at them.

My view: we don't deserve to survive

And the race most likely to be making contact is the Americans..............

[Bantam]

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[rickles23]

42

[Noel Johnson]

It is totally inconceivable that we are alone in the universe. Simply put, there are a lot of stars in the galaxy, some of those stars have planets, some of those planets have to be inside what is called the "life supporting zone" (If I recall it correctly) from that star.

If you then apply the constraints above to the Drake Equation you will get the probability of alien civilizations we may come into contact with. In 1961 the value stated was 10. Drake equation - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia. Since then more systems have been found, some of them have planets in the life zone, however it would appear that the more we learn the less we actually know. Current thinking is around the 3 mark.

Interestingly, myself and a colleague were having this same discussion a couple of weeks ago in the office, much along the same lines as Bantam's technology argument - who's to say that in 500 years we won't have the ability to travel faster than light. 500 years ago it was thought that the sound barrier was impossible. Velocity is velocity it can be achieved somehow. Wormholes are scientifically possible, Hawkins a few years ago was working on the compression of space theory (I don't know if he still is or not). Blimey, even the Vatican say it's possible.

As far as scientology goes, L Ron Hubbard once said that the easiest way to become a millionaire in the US was to start a religion - need I say more.

[Lazlo]

Originally Posted by Richard Mason

In the same book, he also suggested that the laws of physics had to have been set in motion by a "higher intelligence" - it was very interesting & thought provoking stuff.

This is the theory that because this universe could not exist at all if it weren't for a lot of fundamental numbers being exactly the value they are (e.g. the charge of an electron), it is statistically highly unlikely that such a situation came about by chance.

One explanation, is the theory that there are many (infinite?) possible universes and this one is the one of the few that has the correct physical properties necessary for existence. This eliminates the statistical argument: since we exist (or think we do), then we must have got lucky already.

Sounds bizarre, but not as bizarre as the only two explanations for quantum mechanics physicists have proposed 1 2. And we know quantum mechanics works - without it you don't get DVD players, light switches and computer chips 3.

[frosty the snowman]

As serious men of science such as David Icke and Will Smith have proved, the aliens are already here and living amongst us. The only question we need now ask is if they are good or bad aliens.

I think a second poll is called. Stand by...