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Discussion Starter · #1 ·
This may sound like a strange question but could anyone please let me know what the chances are of four single digit numbers being generated (randomly) in a particular order? Ta.
 

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aka Chimp 1 or Mavis...
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10 to the power of 4 so 1 in 10 thousand if you include repeatable numbers eg 0000 or 1111.
 

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This may sound like a strange question but could anyone please let me know what the chances are of four single digit numbers being generated (randomly) in a particular order? Ta.
I'll have a stab

sequence required over 4 numbers can happen only once right? Irrespective of the order or make up - ti will be unique within the 4 digits..

10 * 10 * 10 * 10 (or 10^4) is 10,000

- therefore a 1 in 10,000 probability?
 

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Sub-optimal DIR wannabe
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Sorry to be a pedant, but probability must be expressed as a number between 0 and 1.

So a 1 in 10,000 probability would be expressed as 0.0001.

I'll get my coat.
 

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Discussion Starter · #8 ·
Thankyou all. The reason I'm asking is that I've recieved a new PIN number and it's the exact one I would have chosen anyway. I just wondered how unlikely that was and whether I'd better nip out and get tomorrows winning lottery ticket whilst I'm on a roll!
 

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All the answers so far are based on the odds of getting that combination of 4 numbers.

However, the 4 numbers have to be in the *right order* as well, so the true odds are even higher.

I can't remember how to work this out, but it's basically very very unlikely indeed.
I think the order is covered in the above examples Tom.

Ie 1in10 for the first one x 1in10 for the second x 1in10 x 1in10

Adrian
 

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Nigel Hewitt
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All the answers so far are based on the odds of getting that combination of 4 numbers.

However, the 4 numbers have to be in the *right order* as well, so the true odds are even higher.

I can't remember how to work this out, but it's basically very very unlikely indeed.
You're going to have a problem remembering because the answers so far are correct.

If you don't care about the order the chances of guessing it improve.

Any maths book reference to 'Permutations' and 'Combinations' will explain.
 

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Thankyou all. The reason I'm asking is that I've recieved a new PIN number and it's the exact one I would have chosen anyway. I just wondered how unlikely that was and whether I'd better nip out and get tomorrows winning lottery ticket whilst I'm on a roll!
Lottery odds are 14 million to one - as you've already had some luck with random numbers (whatever the odds are) I'd say you've got less of a chance in the lottery now.

(That's why I don't buy lucky dips - they're random once, the odds of that sequence happenning again are probably higher)
 

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(That's why I don't buy lucky dips - they're random once, the odds of that sequence happenning again are probably higher)
Nope, as they are random the chances of the sequence happening again are exactly the same as they were before it hapened the first time.
 

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Nope, as they are random the chances of the sequence happening again are exactly the same as they were before it hapened the first time.
Quite right, the last draw doesnt affect the next. . .its the same odds to pick 123456 one week as it is the next. I think the name for it (as well as random ) is stochastic...

Cheers

Adam
 
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