[Tonytsdiver]

I've never stepped foot in a casino before but a friend of mine sent me this method of winning on the roulette :money: so here goes.You know in roulette you can bet on blacks or reds. If you bet £1 on black and it goes black you win £1 but if it goes red you loose your £1.
So he's found a way you can win everytime:

bet £1 on black if it goes black you win £1 ok straight forwad so far.

Now again bet £1 on black, if it goes red bet £3 on black, if it goes red again bet £8 on black,if red again bet £20 on black,red again bet £52 on black,etc (always multiple you previous lost bet around 2.5)
If now it lands on black you win £52 so you have £104 and your bet was :

£1 + £3 + £8 + £20 + £52 = £84 So you just won £20

now when you win you start again with £1 on blacks etc etc. I reckon this is to good to be true ! He say's it's always bound to go black and eventually its 50/50 so you always win. I'm confused. Any thoughts ?

Please bet responsibly and don't blame me if you loose all your money :frown:

 

[Digger]

Or, when it goes red you could bet 2.5 times the amount on red, what happened last time does not affect what will happen this time.

This doesn't actually work. If you bet 1+3+8+20+52, you've spent £84 in your stake.

If it comes in when you bet £52, you win £52. So you lost £32.

The maths looks like it makes sense in your post, but actually doesn't.

Unless you are betting on a roulette wheel which pays out much higher than the odds on winning/losing, in which case in the long run you will win, but no casino that's still in business would ever do that - probability would make sure they went out of business pretty quickly.

Digs.

 

[5363]

Or, when it goes red you could bet 2.5 times the amount on red, what happened last time does not affect what will happen this time.

This doesn't actually work. If you bet 1+3+8+20+52, you've spent £84 in your stake.

If it comes in when you bet £52, you win £52. So you lost £32.

The maths looks like it makes sense in your post, but actually doesn't.

Apart from the fact that you get your £52 stake back as well leaving you with £104 from an original stake of £84.

Cheers, Chris

 

[Digger]

Apart from the fact that you get your £52 stake back as well leaving you with £104 from an original stake of £84.

Cheers, Chris

Bugger. Right, doing the maths again

I'd missed this bit out. It can't work, but I just need to work out why.

Digs.

 

[Graham Smith]

Forget Red & Black,

Play the Dozens instead -

http://www.yorkshire-divers.com/forums/non-diving-posts/91972-red-black.html#post1221075

 

[Tonytsdiver]

Bugger. Right, doing the maths again

I'd missed this bit out. It can't work, but I just need to work out why.

Digs.

He He. I've looked at it from a number of angles and can't see the flaw yet but there has to be one !

 

[Stevie H]

He He. I've looked at it from a number of angles and can't see the flaw yet but there has to be one !

Unless of course it goes red 6 times in a row :redface:

Gambling is for fools, even bigger ones think they can beat the odds....

 

[dynarob]

Do a search for Martingale system

Every roulette player ever has 'invented' this system. Trust me it doesn't work. If you let the casinos know you are doing this they will invite you in with open arms.

For example getting 8 bets in a row wrong doesn't sound likely but it is extremely possible with only 1:256 chance by which time you have lost a serious series of stakes and even if you win the next one you are only a pound up.

All this is before you take into account 0 and possibly 00 which is where the house make their advantage and also the table limit which will put a stop to the system fairly soon into a series of loses.

Edit: Reference to one pound win above is with pure Martingale system. With yours you would win more except it isn't possible as the ratio of minimum bid to table limit would not allow you to escalate the bids as you describe.

 

[Digger]

OK, if you assume that each spin of the wheel there is a 50% chance of black or red, which there isn't, but ok, you can keep losing for a very long time.

It is possible for it to keep landing red all night in theory. In which case you would keep losing more and more and more money.

Every time you bet it is 50/50. Of course, we expect that in 10 spins of the wheel it will come out black 5 times, but actually each is independent, so it could take a very long time for that to happen.

But the numbers do seem to work out as a profit. Which is strange.

It does require you to have an almost limitless stake though. It doesn't take very many doubled stakes to get into several thousand pounds on each spin of the wheel, and if you can't afford to increase your stake by more than 2 times then you have to walk away with a massive loss.

Example, if you assume multiply by 2.5 every time, within 10 spins of the wheel you are betting £3,814.70 on each spin of the wheel, in addition to the total of all the previous bets you've made, and nearly £10K on the 11th spin of the wheel.

Yes, the chances that it goes on for this long are small, but it could. And if it does, you just wiped out over £10K of your money if you can't afford to play on.

So you need deep pockets, and there is potential you can lose the lot. So about the same as any gambling then

Digs.

 

[Digger]

Ah yes, the table limit stops you eventually. I knew it. There is the flaw.

Much better to spend your time learning to count cards. It will only take a few years, and you might earn some of the money back before you get booted out of all the local casinos. Plus you have to be some sort of genius, who likes getting a kicking off casino bouncers

Digs.

 

[Kev]

This works every time as long as you have more money than the casino. Mind, if you have more money than the casino you likely don't need to win any more.

 

[dynarob]

Much better to spend your time learning to count cards. It will only take a few years, and you might earn some of the money back before you get booted out of all the local casinos. Plus you have to be some sort of genius, who likes getting a kicking off casino bouncers

Digs.

Blackjack is a much better game but since John Scarne calculated, however many decades ago, that the player has the advantage with the original game the Casino's have clawed back the advantage; changing the rules, complex card shuffling machines which 'clump' cards to the house advantage, 8 decks per game, reshuffling early etc etc. Plus if you do go up in Blackjack, even without counting, then the 'heat' and disruptions you get from staff has to be seen to be believed - Imagine being an anonymous player in Vegas and within 15 minutes of sitting down being told your name, where you live, what you do, where you play in London etc etc

Take up Poker if you want to win money as you are not playing against the house and there is a large skill and mathematical element on top of the luck of the draw.

BTW there is one way to win at Roulette, It is is possible to work out in real time with a computer which segment of the wheel the ball is unlikely to land in and then betting against that. I don't rate your chances of getting away with using such equipment though - a gang tried it with a modified mobile phone a few years ago and got caught.

 

[Mike Cunningham]

Other factors

It is not 50/50 what about zero and double zero ?

 

[NeilB]

Gambling is for fools,

You know you're going to lose.
But that's the way I like it baby.
I don't want to live forever.

Damn, i'm going to be singing that all afternoon now......


Motorhead, Ace of Spades, in case you are the only person out there that didn't recognise it.....

 

[NotDeadYet]

It is not 50/50 what about zero and double zero ?

Exactly. The house margin on American roulette (zero & double zero) is just about double that on European. Craps and Blackjack are about the only games worth playing for any chance of not losing big.

 

[Mrs Calamity]

mg:

The figures are more complicated than ratio deco!

 

[Finless]

I was in Brighton Casino on Sat last (someone wanted their stag-night to finish there) and I stopped by a few casino tables and the only event of any significance I saw was much scooping of chips down the tubes by the house.

A fools paradise as far as I could see. The slowest way of losing money (apart from not doing anything) seemed to be at Blackjack.

 

[12480]

This might all be a nice mental exercise for you but, as someone who used to be on the other side of the table spinning the wheel.

If you don't want to loose money, don't stand at the table

Simple... you will not win

I have seen people who can afford to loose a little loose a lot and those who can afford to loose a lot loose everything. It is the most outstanding sight of stupidity when you see it cold from the non emotional side of the wheel.

 

[rooster]

I've never stepped foot in a casino before but a friend of mine sent me this method of winning on the roulette :money: so here goes.You know in roulette you can bet on blacks or reds. If you bet £1 on black and it goes black you win £1 but if it goes red you loose your £1.
So he's found a way you can win everytime:

bet £1 on black if it goes black you win £1 ok straight forwad so far.

Now again bet £1 on black, if it goes red bet £3 on black, if it goes red again bet £8 on black,if red again bet £20 on black,red again bet £52 on black,etc (always multiple you previous lost bet around 2.5)
If now it lands on black you win £52 so you have £104 and your bet was :

£1 + £3 + £8 + £20 + £52 = £84 So you just won £20

now when you win you start again with £1 on blacks etc etc. I reckon this is to good to be true ! He say's it's always bound to go black and eventually its 50/50 so you always win. I'm confused. Any thoughts ?

Please bet responsibly and don't blame me if you loose all your money :frown:

This is a Martingale - works in theory but what wipes you out is either

1) The extended losing streak where you run out of capital (a long losing streak of 15-20 rounds is statistically much more likely than most think - even betting on the same colour)

2) The casino getting wise to your Martingale betting and chucking you out

3) Hitting the house limit before you get a winner


I was testing a derivative of the Martingale system trading Stock Index options - after a long losing streak you are risking huge amounts for a very small gain which is not good for your psyche, hence I am unlikely to ever trade it in live markets.....I would certainly not recommend anyone try it in casinos or financial markets. I reckon you are on to a loser with it.

The book 'Options as a Strategic Investment' covers it in detail, there are also some back-testing articles available for free in Futures & Options Trader this month.

regards




Roy

Edit: Just saw that DynaRob had posted about Martingale, sorry.

 

[dynarob]

2) The casino getting wise to your Martingale betting and chucking you out

I think Casinos love anybody who has a system for Roulette - because they know there isn't one. All the time you are trying out your system they are just grinding you down with the house advantage. Similarly they love people looking for patterns in past results in a hope of predicting the future - hell they even provide them with pencils and paper to write down the lists of numbers